World War III Scenario

U.S. and Chinese warships battle at sea, firing everything from cannons to cruise missiles to lasers. Great power conflicts defined the 20th century: Two world wars claimed tens of millions of lives, and the Cold War that followed shaped everything from geopolitics to sports. Yet that risk of the past has made a dark comeback. Russian land grabs in Ukraine and constant flights of bombers decorated with red stars probing Europe’s borders have put NATO at its highest levels of alert since the mid 1980s. The worry is that the brewing 21st century Cold War with China and its junior partner Russia could at some point turn hot. Wars start through any number of pathways: One world war happened through deliberate action, the other was a crisis that spun out of control. A great power conflict would be quite different from the small wars of today that the U.S. has grow accustomed to and, in turn, others think reveal a new American weakness. The lifeblood of military communications and control now runs through space, meaning we’d see humankind’s first battles for the heavens. A total mindshift is required for this new reality. In every fight since 1945, U.S. forces have been a generation ahead in technology, having uniquely capable weapons like nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. An array of science-fiction-like technologies would likely make their debut in such a war, from AI battle management systems to autonomous robotics. This is true, but both the historic trading patterns between great powers before each of the last world wars and the risky actions and heated rhetoric out of Moscow and Beijing over the last year demonstrate it is no longer useful to avoid talking about the great power rivalries of the 21st century and the dangers of them getting out of control.